Strong 2009 performance warrants yellow flag

Vanguard不愧是指數型基金的鼻祖，
在全球股市反彈的這段時間 也不忘提醒投資人要注意資產配置。

以下是原文

The rebound in the world's financial markets may make opening your third-quarter account statements a bit less anxiety-provoking than in the recent past. The broad U.S. and international stock markets, as measured by the MSCI US Broad Market Index and MSCI EAFE Index, are up 21.6% and 29.0%, respectively, for 2009 through September, and the broad U.S. bond market, as measured by the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, has returned 5.7%.
While it may be gratifying to see these robust gains lift the balances of your funds, the markets have "come a long way in a hurry," as the saying goes. At this point, it may be wise to ensure that your asset allocation is in line with your long-term goals. Maintaining a balanced, well-diversified portfolio is a sensible way to prepare for the uncertainties and volatility that accompany investing in the stock and bond markets.
We also caution against using short-term performance figures—however attractive—to guide your investment decisions. Four Vanguard funds*, in particular, have provided year-to-date returns well in excess of the broad stock and bond markets (as defined above).

• Vanguard Capital Value Fund: +68.5%
• Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund: +62.6%
• Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund: +59.9%
• Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund: +32.4%

Each of these funds can properly be considered aggressive, and all encompass significant risks given the markets and securities in which they invest. It is important to note that Vanguard is not making a call that these funds or any particular market segment are headed for decline. Experience tells us, however, that "hot" markets eventually cool, and thus we encourage investors to have realistic expectations for both risk and reward going forward.
If these funds or other strongly performing assets are part of your long-term portfolio, continuing to hold them or making regular investments through a dollar-cost averaging program may be appropriate. But we would not suggest, with all due respect to Rudyard Kipling, that you "make one heap of all your winnings, and risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss." In other words, avoid making an all-or-nothing bet on an investment in the hope of regaining past losses.
Over the past two years, the financial markets have taught investors collectively a lifetime of lessons. In short, discipline, patience, and prudence usually pay off in the long run.
*Performance information for Vanguard funds other than those listed, as well as 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and since-inception returns, is available on Vanguard.com.