https://www.ted.com/talks/charles_robertson_africa_s_next_boom
Charles Robertson is a emerging markets economist. He gave us his narrative of economic growth in Africa in this talk. He believes that the African economy could be worth $29 trillion by 2050. African's household incomes will also increase 7 times in the next three decades.
In this speech, he gave us three observations to support his argument. First of all, the democratic governments in Africa have invested in education to gain votes from citizen in order to maintain politicians' reign. Education is a key to drive economic growth. Second, the demographic dividend. We all know it is a key engine for economic growth. But it would also be a disaster if young work forces are not educated at all. Robertson explains that in today the education levels in Sub-Saharan African countries are similar to Mexico and Turkey in 40 years ago. During that period people invested a lot in Mexico and Turkey due to the fact that they had many skilled workers with higher level of education. Third, Robertson challenged the way how economists predict a country's future growth rate. In year 2000 most of the economists said Africa is a hopeless continent because the last 10 years growth rate was only 2 percent. However, the cover of Economist magazine in 2012 was "Africa Rising", the actual growth rate was 5.5 percent. Therefore, Robertson argued that instead of using a country's history growth path to forecast the future, it would be better to predict the future according to similar countries' growth model. He suggested that India is 20 years ahead of Africa, and China is 10 years ahead of India.
Finally, Robertson claimed that people will see the exceptional growth we have seen in China over the last few years happened in Africa. He said "If anyone can do what China did in the last 30 years, it will be Africa in the next 30".
In this speech, he gave us three observations to support his argument. First of all, the democratic governments in Africa have invested in education to gain votes from citizen in order to maintain politicians' reign. Education is a key to drive economic growth. Second, the demographic dividend. We all know it is a key engine for economic growth. But it would also be a disaster if young work forces are not educated at all. Robertson explains that in today the education levels in Sub-Saharan African countries are similar to Mexico and Turkey in 40 years ago. During that period people invested a lot in Mexico and Turkey due to the fact that they had many skilled workers with higher level of education. Third, Robertson challenged the way how economists predict a country's future growth rate. In year 2000 most of the economists said Africa is a hopeless continent because the last 10 years growth rate was only 2 percent. However, the cover of Economist magazine in 2012 was "Africa Rising", the actual growth rate was 5.5 percent. Therefore, Robertson argued that instead of using a country's history growth path to forecast the future, it would be better to predict the future according to similar countries' growth model. He suggested that India is 20 years ahead of Africa, and China is 10 years ahead of India.
Finally, Robertson claimed that people will see the exceptional growth we have seen in China over the last few years happened in Africa. He said "If anyone can do what China did in the last 30 years, it will be Africa in the next 30".
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