Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?

https://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_rudd_are_china_and_the_us_doomed_to_conflict?language=en




Summary

As a former prime minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd provides his personal insights to one of the most frequently asked questions in international relation field, that is, the future relationship between China and United States.  He started with Napoleon's famous quote "China is a sleeping lion, and when she awakes, she will shake the world". Next, he showed some diagrams to further support his viewpoint. Such as China will overtake the US as the largest economy, and China will be the biggest carbon emitters in the near future. He said if China be the largest economy, it will be first non-English speaking country since George III was the throne of England, and that was two centuries ago.

He believes a mega challenge comes with a mega change, hoping this mega change does not lead human kind to another catastrophic war. If China continues growing rapidly, the US will once again face a competitor. This could be a dangerous sign according to Thucydides Trap, a theory that a war will be inevitable between a rising power and an established great power. Kevin Rudd believes if we look back the history, the answer to the question about Thucydides Trap appears obvious. In 11 of 15 cases since 1500 where a rising power challenge an established great power. The war was occurred.  If we want to engage tje solution of this great question, Kevin believes that we need to know how Chinese thinks. First, Chinese thinks they have been humiliated by western countries since Opium war. Second, China was contained by the US and its allies in recent years. Third, Chinese legitimacy of their political system was not admitted, etc... US also blamed Chinese about how they attacked US and global firms through internet. Also, US accused Chinese of manipulating RMB currency. Other than that, the US also argued Chinese committed on intellectual property cheat. These two great powers are criticized each other and disagree on many topics.

Kevin Rudd hope he can provides a solution to this issue. Basically, he argued both countries should be realistic about the topics they disagree on, and just put them aside until they possess necessary skills to manage those topics. He then mentioned a solution based on his past experience. As a prime minister at that time, he announced a federal parliament apology to indigenous Australians. To me, it sounds like he thinks the West should be apologetic toward Chinese for the past, a century of humiliation for Chinese. By doing so, both sides can then sit down and discuss peace and prosperity with each other, instead of repeating a catastrophic war.

My opinion
In his speech, he implies Thucydides Trap will once again lead China and US to a catastrophic war. To me, it would be more persuasive if he can analyze those 4 cases which are not end in war and tell us how those 4 cases are radically different from the world we have today. Not only use 11 cases to support his argument. Similar to black swan problem, if people want to prove all swans are white, the best strategy is try to find one black swan. Because we just need one black swan to prove this argument is wrong even we have 1 million white swans supporting it. But if he merely wants to use Thucydides Trap to prevent all human beings from another devastating war, then I totally agree with him.